To err is human, of course. However, there is a certain type of fallacy that occurs regularly in a certain type of people: the gambler’s fallacy. It is a variant of the ancient wish to be able to predict fate. All alleged methods for this are doomed to failure, but hardly anyone wants to see that, it’s not just for players. Even advice sites like Gamblingpro cannot offer guaranteed profits from casinos without Gamstop. However, there you will find tips for realistically assessing the chances of winning.

The common gambler’s fallacy is a psychological phenomenon that is not unique to gambling. It occurs in all situations in which random events play a role. Essentially, it is about the erroneous assumption that chance follows logical laws and can therefore be predicted. The fallacy of the player consists in deriving inevitabilities for the future from events that have already occurred. In roulette, this would typically be the conviction: “A red number has come up seven times in a row, now it’s black’s turn.” No, no way! A roulette wheel has no memory.

Non GamStop Casinos’ Stats Knows no Justice

A certain exception are card games, which can be found in all non GamStop casinos. Here, the odds of certain outcomes can change because cards are already out of play. Of course, the more the stack melts, the higher the chance that one of the remaining cards will be drawn. What that is, however, remains completely undetermined by previous events. Each of them stands for itself.

Chance follows no claims of justice; the “Odds Due Doctrine,” as Gambler’s Fallacy is sometimes called, is a classic gambler’s fallacy. The probability of the even occurrence of red and black at the roulette table is only given mathematically but does not have to be fulfilled in one evening, because the statistics are incorruptible, but not enforceable. Many people, not just gamblers, don’t understand what a 50/50 chance really is. It does not mean that for 100 spins of the roulette wheel, 50 black numbers will be drawn and 50 red numbers. Rather, it is like this: for each game round, there is a 50 percent probability of one of the two colors. And always and completely regardless of how much or little she was already on it.

Historic Millions Lost in Monte Carlo & Non GamStop Casinos by Players’ Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy drew more attention at Monte Carlo in 1913. That is why it is also called “Monte Carlo Fallacy” in English. On a fateful summer evening in 1913, the roulette ball landed in a black slot 26 times in a row at the Monte Carlo casino. The bets tumbled during this series as players felt it was inevitable that red would be the next to act. Millions were lost as a result.

26 revolutions are statistically nothing. It would have taken much more time, maybe several evenings, to get red to its statistical right. The difference between average results and statistical probability is large. This fact, which is actually easy to see, did not prevent anyone at the time from drawing the wrong conclusions from objective facts in the same place and at the same time using the same erroneous logic: the gambler’s fallacy.

The Psychological Background

The gambler fallacy definition is based on good research. Their psychological mechanisms are deeply rooted in our evolutionary history and make us follow the most stupid assumptions, regardless of individual intelligence or educational level.

Experience is Deceptive

Personal experience is more of a hindrance to us than helpful because probability calculation requires the ability to abstract. Most people have probably never heard of the fact that the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 together resulted in six correct numbers in the lottery. Mixed combinations of numbers seem more likely to us because we deal with them again and again. But they are not. Each one of them has the same statistical chance.

Phantom Pattern

Another failing of our brains is that it always wants to see patterns, even where there aren’t any. We are constantly unconsciously looking for patterns because they make orientation easier for us. That was an evolutionary advantage for us. It enabled us to remember things better and learn faster. However, we involuntarily assign sample quality to even the smallest details without knowing the big picture.

Vain Hope for Insight of the Fate

We know that the laws of mathematics don’t care a whit about our personal concerns. Still, we cannot help but expect justice from fate. One could lose oneself in philosophical considerations that reach into the religious. In any case, all previous experiences at the gaming table have shown that providence does not rule in the casino. Only one thing is fair there: Every player has the same chance. But he has no right to win because he lost before. Even if that has been the case for a very long time. This is easy to understand in theory, but difficult to bear in practice. So hard that players can be inclined to suspect cheating when certain results consistently contradict their expectations.

Similar Fallacies in Other Areas of Life

The gambler fallacy definition doesn’t just apply to gamblers. Here are some examples from other areas of life:

  • War Survival: During World War I, soldiers suffered from a bomb crater fallacy: They liked to take cover where it had landed before, believing it was less likely to be hit again.
  • Investing: Some investors believe that a sustained rise or fall in stocks for consecutive trading days must inevitably result in a trend reversal. This can cause them to hold on to stocks for too long or exit from them too soon.

No one is immune to the gambler’s fallacy. It even evades scientists who want to believe too firmly in the validity of certain research results. The only thing that helps: is we have to be on our guard!