The boom in green energy has long been accompanied by attempts to find a replacement for the usual, but completely not environmentally friendly hydrocarbons. Hydrogen has become one of the candidates for this role. The European Union, China, the USA, Japan, and many other countries are betting on it. The total cost of all projects being implemented today in the field of hydrogen energy has already reached $ 90 billion. The volume of planned investments in the next 30 years from the EU alone – up to 470 billion euros. At the same time, there are still many obstacles on the way of the hydrogen revolution – in particular, the high cost of production, lack of clean water, and underdeveloped delivery systems. Prospects for H2 as the main fuel of the future – in the material of “Lenta.ru”.

Inexhaustible Fuel

The main problem with any fossil energy source is its limited volume. Sooner or later, oil, gas, and coal will run out. The existing renewable energy sources wind, sun, and water cannot yet sufficiently replace hydrocarbons. But hydrogen, in theory, can. Hydrogen is practically not found on Earth in its pure form, but it can be extracted from a large number of common resources water methane, coal, biomass, algae, and even debris.

They learned how to obtain hydrogen at the beginning of the 19th century, but until the end of the 20th century, it was impossible to use hydrogen everywhere as a sustainable source of energy. The gas generators were massive and required fuel to operate. The second problem is that such hydrogen cannot be called pure, since gas generators leave a carbon footprint.

An important step towards the conversion of hydrogen into a common source of energy took place in 1959 – the American company Allis-Chalmers Manufacturing Company created a tractor with a power plant that worked on the so-called fuel cells. The principle of operation of such an installation is simple: the hydrogen stored in cylinders enters into a chemical reaction with oxygen, as a result of which electricity is released, which feeds the electric motor. Also, fuel cells release into the atmosphere environmentally friendly by-products heat and water vapor. Fuel cells can be used to generate electricity on an industrial scale, and the heat generated by the reaction can be used to heat buildings. Also, they are much more compact than a gas generator set, so they can be installed onboard any vehicle. In theory, fuel cells can make hydrogen the backbone of the fuel and energy complex (FEC), but this requires solving two problems.

The first is the carbon footprint of hydrogen production. Fuel cells provide zero emissions only when generating electricity, but they require hydrogen to operate. This problem can be solved by electrolysis of water: under the influence of an electric current, distilled water decomposes into oxygen and hydrogen. The process, in general, can be closed the electricity obtained in fuel cells is used, among other things, to produce hydrogen. At the same time, hydrogen obtained by electrolysis is also subdivided into yellow and green for the production of the first, nuclear energy is used, the second renewable energy source. Thus, many countries recognize only the green subspecies as truly environmentally friendly hydrogen.

Instead of ICE

The second major obstacle to the widespread adoption of fuel cells is their high cost. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, BMW, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, and even AvtoVAZ showed their fuel cell vehicles, but there was no talk of mass production. In 2008, Honda released a small batch of FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell sedans that were leased (both leased and similarly targeted) in California for $ 600 a month. At the same time, the production of each car cost Honda a million dollars. In 2014, Toyota began selling the Mirai, the world’s first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Two years later, the second generation of the Honda FCX Clarity went on sale, but sales remained modest. Toyota has sold about ten thousand Mirai for the entire production period.

In parallel, fuel cells began to be used in other types of transport. In 2017, a Coradia iLint hydrogen fuel cell passenger train entered the route in Germany. Moreover, it works on lines that are not electrified – the fuel cell train has replaced diesel locomotives. Since 2008, the Alster, a tributary of the Elbe, has been operated by hydrogen fuel-cell vessels. There are also prototypes of aircraft with similar power plants. However, Toyota and other manufacturers are confident that shortly, the cost of fuel cell vehicles will not be higher than that of vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE). In 2020, the Japanese auto giant introduced the second generation of the model and plans to increase sales tenfold.

Several players joined the fight for the heavy fuel cell truck market at once. Hyundai plans to deliver 1,600 fuel cell trucks to customers in Europe through its Hydrogen Mobility program by 2025. Toyota teamed up with Kenworth to test the hydrogen truck back in 2017, and two years later delivered several vehicles to the port of Los Angeles. Finally, one of the main news generators was the American startup Nikola, which develops fuel cell trucks. The company has promised to start producing them by 2023.

The Case Smells Like Kerosene

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Research Center estimates all hydrogen energy projects currently underway at over $ 90 billion. The Institute for Energy Sector Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), in turn, counted dozens of renewable energy-based electrolysis plants under construction with a total capacity of 50 GW and a cost of $ 75 billion.

The main initiators of the abandonment of fossil energy sources and the transition to hydrogen are the G7 countries, which is 2015, even before the signing of the Paris Agreement, agreed to completely get rid of fossil fuels by the end of the century. The European Union is even more optimistic in 2019, The European Green Deal was adopted, according to which the EU must achieve zero greenhouse gas emissions and eliminate fossil energy by 2050. Hydrogen should play a special role in its implementation.

In July 2020, the European Commission presented the Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate Neutral Europe. It provides for concrete steps to develop hydrogen energy. Green hydrogen will become the priority area. But in the first phase low-carbon hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, such as coal, but with carbon capture will also be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions faster.

By 2030, according to the strategy, electrolyzers with a total capacity of 40 GW for the production of green hydrogen will operate on the territory of the European Union, and another 40 GW will be produced in neighboring countries for the export of hydrogen to the EU. For comparison, the total capacity of all power plants in Russia is about 250 GW. The production of the greenest hydrogen will reach 10 million tons. The EC estimates that by 2050, renewable hydrogen in Europe could require € 180 billion to € 470 billion in investment. So far, hydrogen-based energy accounts for less than 1 percent of all energy consumption in the European Union.

Lined Up

China has no less ambitious plans: the country hopes that by 2040 hydrogen will make up 10 percent of the entire Chinese energy system. For many years, the PRC was the world leader in the production of hydrogen and occupied about one-third of the world market. But we are talking about high-carbon hydrogen, which is obtained from coal and oil without carbon capture. This leads to the fact that the price of a kilogram of hydrogen in China is one of the lowest in the world – about 9 yuan (1.15 euros). For comparison the estimated cost of fossil hydrogen in the EU today is about 1.5 euros per kilogram. The estimated cost of fossil hydrogen with carbon capture and storage is around € 2 per kilogram. A kilogram of green hydrogen, in turn, will cost 2.5-5.5 euros.

However, the commitment to become climate neutral by the middle of the century is forcing China to reorient itself towards producing clean hydrogen. Also, the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), a US-based nonprofit that advises on the energy transition, estimates that China could become carbon neutral by mid-century without compromising economic growth. The institute argued that China is well-positioned to gain a technological competitive advantage from moving towards clean zero emissions, and urged the country to support hydrogen electrolysis.

Neighbors South Korea and Japan also intend to develop the hydrogen industry. The first plans to launch the production of fuel cells with a total capacity of 40 GW, as well as to produce more than 6 million hydrogen cars by 2040. The second has already built a green hydrogen plant in Fukushima, one of the largest in the world. And Saudi Arabia, with the technological support of the American company Air Products, is building in its “city of the future” Neome a giant green electrolysis plant worth 5 billion dollars and with a capacity of 650 tons of hydrogen per day.

Probably the largest hydrogen project of our time is currently underway in Australia. Solar and wind power plants with a total area of ​​6.5 thousand square kilometers are being built at the Asian Renewable Energy Hub in the Pilbara mining center. They will produce over 50 terawatt-hours of green energy, most of which will go to hydrogen production. The $ 16 billion projects is slated to launch in 2027.

Challenge And Chance

As for Russia, the growing role of hydrogen in the global energy sector at first glance promises it to lose its market share. In reality, there is a chance not only to maintain but also to strengthen their positions. Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia is already negotiating with Germany on joint research on the production of green energy – in particular, hydrogen. Novak stressed that, in his opinion, hydrocarbons will continue to play a key role in world energy, but the energy balance in Europe may change.

Indeed, the EU’s hydrogen strategy implies the import of huge volumes of hydrogen, and Russia already has channels for its supply. For example, the existing gas pipeline network can be used to import hydrogen to Germany in particular the OPAL and Eugal gas pipelines, the onshore extensions of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2. Cascade the German subsidiary of Gazprom, verbally confirmed its readiness in principle to use its gas pipelines to transport hydrogen.

Thus, Russia already has a buyer of hydrogen and the ability to transport it. However, there are no capacities for the production of hydrogen, the more environmentally friendly, in the country. The roadmap development of hydrogen energy in Russia for 2020-2024 should solve this problem. The main role in its implementation should be played by Rosatom and Gazprom. Already in 2024, Rosatom is to launch pilot hydrogen plants at nuclear power plants and build an experimental test site for hydrogen trains. Gazprom, in turn, must develop and test a gas turbine using methane-hydrogen fuel in 2021, and then study the possibilities of using hydrogen in engines of various vehicles and gas installations – gas turbine engines and gas boilers.

NOVATEK is also showing interest in the topic of hydrogen. The company announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding to explore and evaluate opportunities for developing a hydrogen value chain with Germany’s Uniper. The companies are considering the possibility of supplying blue hydrogen produced from natural gas with further CO2 capture and storage as well as green hydrogen.

Foggy Future

Estimated BofA Securities, in 2050 the value of the global market of green hydrogen amount to $ 2.5 trillion. Also, at least 30 million jobs will be created. However, not everyone shares such optimistic forecasts. Rystad Energy analysts believe that the hydrogen triumph in the energy sector is still a long way off only half of the world’s green hydrogen projects will be implemented by 2035. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of projects will require state support.

In addition to the fact that clean hydrogen energy requires huge capital investments, there is a problem associated with the lack of a key raw material clean water. According to Oilprice experts, nine tons of water are needed to produce one ton of hydrogen by electrolysis. However, it requires special preparation and cleaning. For example, to prepare one ton of demineralized water suitable for electrolysis, you need two tons of ordinary water. Thus, it will take 18 tons of water to produce a ton of hydrogen.

It is also unclear what to do with the transportation of hydrogen. Now the bulk of this fuel is transported by sea ​​tankers, but the problem lies in the boil-off of the product, even despite the use of cooling systems. It is much cheaper to deliver hydrogen through pipes however, hydrogen can be put into operating gas transmission systems only by mixing it with natural gas, which means additional costs for extraction.

The European Commission recognizes that clean and low-carbon hydrogen will for a long time be significantly more expensive than hydrogen obtained from fossil energy sources. On the good news: over the past five years the cost of electrolysis technology has dropped by 40 percent and continues to decline. BloombergNEF predicts that by 2050, green hydrogen, at a dollar per kilogram price, will be more profitable than gas in world markets and will be able to compete with the cheapest coal. But this is in 30 years and for now, the path of converting hydrogen into the main energy carrier of the planet is just beginning.