With the data of this Monday, Spain seems that, if the trend is confirmed throughout the week, it would be in full decline of the third wave. Last week the turning point came on Thursday when the cumulative incidence over 14 days did not exceed 900 cases and went from 899 on Wednesday to 889, and on Friday it dropped slightly to 886. This Monday Health has registered a slight decrease to 865.67 points.Another piece of information that helps confirm this trend that Fernando Simon, director of the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), has been announcing two weeks ago, is the seven-day incidence, which has already led to several days of decline since last Wednesday when it touched the ceiling with 414 cases and it reached 386 on Friday. This Monday it has dropped to 365.73.

Fernando Simon, director of the CCAES, has reiterated the message he gave in his last appearance, last Thursday, when the latest data confirmed both the slight decrease in the incidence of the virus and the increase that hospitals and ICUs are still suffering in Spain .We need it to go down very quickly so that our hospitals do not collapse, said Simon, who indicated that the evolution of the epidemic, in terms of transmission, is going in the right direction.

“HOPE DATA”

It’s going down fast, he said of the cumulative incidence, which has dropped by 21 points since Friday. It is a hopeful piece of information, it is an interesting piece of information, but we still have a few weeks left to ensure that the intensive care units do not become saturated, he insisted.We have seven autonomous communities in which ICU occupancy is above 50%, and in three of them it is above 60%. Data that, Simón has pointed out, have surely already forced hospital activity to be reprogrammed.

I think they will remember that utopian 50 cases in 14 days, Simon recalled, in relation to the goal that Health was set when the second wave began to descend. He also explained that in this third wave Spain is also ahead of the countries of the European environment, as it already happened in the second, which rose and fell a few weeks earlier in our country than in the rest of the continent.

SEVEN COMMUNITIES, ABOVE 1,000

By autonomous communities, seven are still above 1,000 incidence points: Valencian Community continues to have the highest AI in all of Spain (1,352.22), followed by Castilla y León (1,330.63), La Rioja (1,304.30) , Castilla-La Mancha (1,127.38), Murcia (1,098.87), Melilla (1,074.15) and Extremadura (1,000.37). Another five more autonomous regions are above 600: Madrid (978.20), Andalusia (959.28, up more than 70 points), Aragon (671.72, down 100 points), Galicia (780.48 up slightly) and Asturias (628.76).

In the number of infections a decrease is also observed. Thus, since Friday, 79,686 new infections have been registered, a figure lower than last Monday (93,822) and the previous one (84,287), when the incidence soared. 5,026 were diagnosed the previous day, which adds up to a total of 2,822,805 infections since the start of the pandemic in our country.

Regarding the number of deaths, the figures began to increase in the middle of last week, leaving the consequences of the high number of infections and of hospitalized and sick ICUs already noticeable. Since Friday, 762 deaths have been registered, a figure similar to last Monday (765), both much higher than previous Monday. However, the figure for each day on weekends is lower than on weekdays. In the last seven days, 1,534 deaths were recorded, making a total of 59,081 since the beginning of the pandemic.

HELP PORTUGAL? WHEN IT CAN BE DONE

Some autonomous communities have barely managed to avoid the complete saturation of their ICUs, Simon pointed out about the exchange of patients between regions.Right now, the truth is that Spain is not in a very good situation to offer ICU beds, he has assessed the possibility of offering help in this regard to Portugal, although he has clarified that it is a reasonable option and has agreed that, when it can be done, do it.

The transmission control measures of the British variant and the variants that circulate in Spain are not different, what you have to do is apply them well , has argued Simon. If we are all aware of individual responsibility, and the institutions of its responsibility, we can control the epidemic regardless of the variant that circulates. Our situation will be acceptable if we are at 50 or 100, at 150 if they want, he warned after being asked about the possibility of saving Holy Week. A good situation is not 500, he insisted, always referring to the accumulated incidence of 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants.

24.96% OF THE BEDS OCCUPIED

The healthcare burden continues to be unsustainable. If the infections continue to decline, it will still take us to see the reflection in hospitals that are completely full and provide beds where they can. The percentage of beds occupied by patients with coronavirus in Spain rises slightly and stands at 24.96% (this figure far exceeds the maximum risk threshold, 15%). The percentage of intensive care beds, on the other hand, is still growing and a record number was beaten this Monday, much higher than the second wave: 45.30% (also well above the threshold for very high risk, which is at more 25%). We recall that these figures are only for Covid patients, we must add those who occupy ICU beds for other pathologies or interventions and, therefore, the degree of saturation is even higher, practically 100% in some autonomies.

Thus, in terms of ICU bed occupancy, the most saturated communities are: La Rioja (71.26%, up almost 13 percentage points), Melilla (64.71%, up almost 12 points), Valencian Community (63.21% ), Castilla-La Mancha (55.87%), Castilla y León (54.27%, up 5 points), Madrid (52.27%), Catalonia (52.25%), Extremadura (47.69%) , Balearic Islands (46.62%), Andalusia (38.44%), Aragon (37.29%), Murcia (35.31%), Basque Country (33.26%, up almost 8 points), Galicia (32 , 02%), Asturias (30.40%), Cantabria (29.23%) and Navarra (26.32%). That is, only the Canary Islands (18.16%) and Ceuta (23.53%, which has dropped almost 6 points) do not exceed the maximum risk threshold – which does not mean that they are well.

This is seen in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions, which maintain this upward trend. To date, there are 32,027 patients admitted for Covid, a much higher figure than in the second wave. Of those more than 32,000, 5,233 correspond to Madrid, 5,207 to the Valencian Community, 5,206 to Catalonia, 4,962 to Andalusia and below Castilla y León (2,420) and Castilla-La Mancha (1,870). Since Friday, 3,943 patients have been admitted (6,962 in the last seven days). 355 patients have been referred to the ICU since Friday (563 in the last seven days). Therefore, since the beginning of the pandemic, there are already 254,571 total hospitalized and 21,925 total ICU cases.